This weekends Swedish GP a the legendary Uddevalla circuit might not have the anticipation of previous years, but there is a lot riding on the results, both in MXGP and MX2. Of course, Jeffrey Herlings has arrived at this circuit on a multitude of times, with a handy points lead.

As mentioned in previous stories on MXlarge, back in 2013, 2014 and 2015, he held more than 100 points over his rivals. On two of those occasions, he didn’t win the championship due to injury, in 2014 and 2015. He did however win in 2013 and in 2012, with a small points lead over Tommy Searle heading into Sweden, he also won the championship.

This year, the points lead is 104 points and behind him is defending world champion, Romain Febvre. What we can be sure of, the Jeffrey Herlings of 2026 is very much an older, wiser and careful racer, as we have seen in recent weeks, where he can beat his competition by miles, or take it easy and just win as much as he needs to.

I think in Sweden, we won’t see “The Bullet” push too hard, and while he might still get the win, it will be the job of HRC to get him out of the start first and then just ride at a pace that feel comfortable.

Now, Febvre, he doesn’t have anything to prove, with two world titles to his name, and he is a two-time winning in Sweden, the first in 2015, the year he won his first world title and again last year, when he won his second world title.

One thing you can say about the Frenchman, he never gives up and he is willing to take extreme measures to win. Like some legends from the past, a Bill Nilsson, an Antonio Cairoli, or a Jorge Prado, attack can also sometimes be led by defence and the Kawasaki’s race craft is as old school as it gets.

I would not be surprised to see Febvre standing on the top step of the podium with a 1-1 performance and close to points gap to Herlings, even if it is by the smallest of margins, because Herlings will 100% be on the podium somewhere.

Of course, other men will also battle for victory in Sweden, Kay De Wolf, Tom Vialle, Tim Gajser, or even Jeremy Seewer, who is a three-time winner at Uddevalla. For me though, it will be Febvre who takes victory.

His last three appearances at this circuit he has gone 2-4-1, and while that isn’t mind blowing, you just get the feeling, with what is at stake for the points leader Herlings and second placed man Febvre, the Frenchman on the Kawasaki will be far more desperate for victory and I just think Herlings won’t want to be messing with his big rival, when a safe second will be more than enough heading in Arnhem in a weeks time.

My podium is Febvre, Herlings and Seewer, who just seems to love this place and on the reliable KTM machine, might even battle for the lead at some point. Of those three, Febvre and Herlings have two wins each at Uddevalla and Seewer has three.