Who wins this weekend’s Grand Prix in Sardinia? Well, having tipped Jeffrey Herlings for the first three rounds, I have to hand the favouritism role over to Lucas Coenen and it doesn’t take a genius to see the magic of Coenen in Spain and one of the motos in Switzerland.

Last year I saw many things about Coenen that reminded me of Herlings. Some riders have something a little special and some have SOMETHING SPECIAL!!!! Lucas Coenen is that rider, a rider who can put MXGP on his back and carry it through for the next 15 years.

Not only a brilliant racer, but a character that will bring more people to the sport, just as Roger De Coster did in the 1970s, the golden era of the 500cc class in the 1980s and names like McGrath, Everts and Carmichael in the 1990s.

The last 15 or so years, it’s been Herlings, Ken Roczen, Eli Tomac, Antonio Cairoli, Tim Gajser and Jett Lawrence who have made our sport better on both sides of the Atlantic. Now, its Coenen time and man, I am excited for it.

It is nearly impossible to go against Coenen for the win and his sand skills are ahead of everyone else at the moment. Herlings complains about bike set-up in the sand and if he can get that right, then who knows if “The Bullet” can match the Belgian teenager. I mean, Herlings has been maybe the best sand rider in the sports history, but as he has told us many time, he is 31 years old and slowly reaching the end of his stunning career.

If Herlings can stop Coenen, then well, that is one of those moments of great champions, and Herlings is that for sure. He will need good starts and latch onto Coenen and not let the KTM rider. The only problem for Herlings, he is a diesel and his early race speed has never been that of many others.

Coenen is good enough to get a 10 second lead and maintain it and he is clearly fit enough to keep the speed at a high-level right until the chequered flag. In that department, maybe Herlings has finally met his match. Jorge Prado also had that ability and Herlings struggled to deal with that.

The HRC factory rider might have to over-ride in the early going and he has often struggled with arm-pump, so that puts a lot of pressure on those for-arms. As much as I would love to make Herlings the favourite for this weekend, I just cannot do it.

Of course, the class is full of potential GP winners and names like Tim Gajser, Kay De Wolf, Andrea Adamo and Tom Vialle, who have all won GPs or motos at Riola. Vialle has won two GPs in the Sardinian sand in 2021 and 2022, and De Wolf won in MX2 in 2024 and 2025. Interesting, de Wolf has gone 1-2-2-1-1-1 in his last three Sundays at Riola. He might be the dark horse and did push Herlings all the way in moto on last Sunday in The Netherlands.

I am going Coenen winning with 1-1, Herlings second with 2-2 and de Wolf third with 3-3. Tom Vialle will also be a contender for the GP win and could easily win it. A fast starter and also good early moto speed, but he has at times shown he can fade in motos, and maybe he needs more time on the 450 to improve that.